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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple formula. It frequently functions as a form of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic turnaround is handed the prize. In reality, it sparks an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring excellent leadership or just the greatest surprise.

But the current race is distinctly unique. The group of contenders is unusually strong. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division champions fading and recent underperformers ascending together. In an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. But in such a wild and thrilling year, he's up against multiple other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the ideal ballot ought to shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been given the opportunity to display his otherworldly talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained performance. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an offense constructed entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide-open targets consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been capable to conjure big plays from broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Almost every decision – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the organization with the kind of hype Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive genius but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a typical year, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. But the current is not a typical campaign!

The area where his case runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained success. But Johnson comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the off-field aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his early public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen trusted newbies. From the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

Following an early hot start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. He gets the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year argument has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has regressed after that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him just one place ahead of other QBs.

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