Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. They authors two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has got important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."